The State Executive Approval Database (SEAD) v1.5

Matthew Singer
University of Connecticut
matthew.m.singer@uconn.edu

STRUCTURE OF THIS README FILE

The SEAD database v1.0 tracks state-level measures of governor approval over time. V1.5 adds presidential approval. This dataverse contains the survey marginals drawn from the JAR and from my own data collection. I am also posting latent measures of presidential approval estimated using Simson's dyad ratio's algorithm as described in my paper "Dynamics of Gubernatorial Approval: Evidence from a New Database." Finally, I have updated the Codebook.

CAVEATS ON DATA USAGE

As with the governor data, the user should consider carefully the thickness of the data when doing time series analyses and pay attention to the variable "valid_surveys" that tracks how many surveys were conducted in each quarter. But an additional concern should be noted. When I estimated the series in 2022, I used them both to predict governor approval and to model gubernatorial elections and they worked fairly well, so I did not examine them closely. However, in late 2024 I looked at them and realized that they smooth out dramatic swings, such as when presidents of different parties are inaugurated. As public opinion has become more polarized at the state level, this is increasingly an issue. The data track well popularity trends over time within state-president dyads, but their levels look to be problematic (e.g. Trump's approval is lower in some "red states" than in some "blue" ones). In a future release I will estimate shorter series to see if this helps capture the large swings between administrations that have become more common, but I wanted to release the raw data for scholars to consider other ways of using. 

The latent data also contains data from the COVID States/50-States project (https://www.covidstates.org/). However, the early release of the data included a do-not-distribute clause and so interested users should reach out to the PIs of that projects. 

CITATION INFORMATION

Users of the SEAD presidential approval data should cite not only (1) the version of the SEAD dataset that is being used and this dataverse but also the original JAR dataset as it draws on Niemi et al.'s data and the SEAD codebook is based on the JAR codebook, using many of the same codes to ensure comparability with the data. Users should also reference Jennifer Jensen's work in maintaining the JAR. Full citation details are available in "Codebook SEAD governors v1.PDF". 

COMPUTING ENVIRONMENT:

Analyses were done in stata/SE 17 with a 64Bit machine. The stata files are stored as version 12 to allow for maximum usage. 

The latent approval variables for SEAD v1.0 are generated using R version 4.1.3 and in R Studio. 

The R code and state routines build on ones developed for the Executive Approval project by Greg Love; I take all responsibility for any errors I have introduced and appreciate his help. 


DOCUMENTATION, DATA FILES, AND CODE

For the programs to generate the latent estimates of presidential approval, use the commands and instructions in the file "State Executive Approval Dataset (SEAD) version 1."

Codebook V1.5.doc: An updated codebook with source codes for additional pollsters that either did not poll about governors or that have been added since the release of SEAD v1.0

President approval data for SEAD v1.5.xlsx: The marginal estimates of presidential approval at the state level along with information on their sample, question wording, and source, including links where possible. 

SEAD President quarterly v1.5.dta: The latent measure of president approval as estimated by Wcalc, at the quarterly level. Contains raw approval and disapproval as well as relative approval. 

OTHER COMMENTS

Please email me papers you write using the data-I am excited to see how it gets used. Then please be nice when you find mistakes; I will do my best to correct them in future editions if you let me know about them.


